The promise of globalization is fading. This special report, "US-China: A New Cold War?", explores the tense standoff fundamentally reordering the international landscape. We're witnessing a palpable chill and a "Great Decoupling" – a very real splintering of the global economic fabric.
From early 18th-century maritime trade to ideological deep freezes post-1949, and then the "Ping-Pong Diplomacy" paving the way for Nixon's 1972 visit, the US-China relationship has cycled through friction and cooperation. China's 2001 WTO entry promised "Chimerica" and unprecedented economic integration.
However, cracks emerged: the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, growing intellectual property theft, and manufacturing job migration fueling Western disillusionment. Now, in "Act III," the "New Cold War" feels increasingly real, marked by China's rapid military modernization, assertive global posture, and a fundamental ideological clash.
Friction manifests across volatile flashpoints: Trump's trade wars, expanded by the Biden administration with tariffs on Chinese EVs and solar panels, are escalating. The critical "Chip War" for tech supremacy sees the U.S. restricting China's access to advanced semiconductors and AI, pushing Beijing towards self-sufficiency. Taiwan remains arguably the most dangerous geopolitical tinderbox.
The "Great Decoupling" is visible as companies "de-risk" supply chains, adopting a "China plus one" strategy, diverting investment to Mexico or Vietnam. U.S. foreign direct investment into China shrinks, reflecting American capital's apprehensive stance.
Expect more tariff escalation and an intensifying tech race, potentially dividing the world into economic blocs. The IMF warns a full decoupling could cost a staggering 7% of global GDP. Paradoxically, cooperation remains vital on global problems like climate change and future pandemics. Can these titans navigate "competitive coexistence" without plunging the world into greater volatility? This special report unpacks the question defining our collective future.
--------------------------The Thought Collective------------------------------
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